Who's Next

No this post is not referring to some dumb shenanigans by ESPN.

Instead my question is who is going to be the next MLB pitcher to win 300 games. This question has been bantered about because Randy Johnson is going for his 300th win today. It seems like whenever a pitcher reaches this milestone the inevitable question is who is going to be next. We heard this same talk when Clemens, Maddux and Glavine all reached the plateau. Conventional wisdom would say that there will be somebody who will do it...that Johnson won't be the last.

Well he probably won't be the last but it's going to be awhile before we see another one.

The next five pitchers on the active win's list is

Jamie Moyer, 250 wins (age, 46)
Andy Pettitte, 220 wins (37)
Pedro Martinez, 214 wins (37)
John Smoltz, 210 wins (42)
Tim Wakefield, 184 wins (42)

Moyer, Smoltz and Wakefield are too old to seriously consider. Martinez, who isn't officially retired, but who also is not on a active roster doesn't seem like a real possibility. Out of that group Pettitte might have the best chance but I don't know if I see him pitching another 5-6 years that it would take to reach 300.

So now we look at some pitchers in their prime...

Roy Halladay, 140 wins (32)
Roy Oswalt, 131 wins (31)
Mark Buehrle, 128 wins (30)
CC Sabathia, 122 wins (28)
Johan Satanna, 116 wins (30)
Carlos Zambrana, 99 wins (28)
Josh Beckett, 95 wins (29)
Jake Peavy, 91 wins (28)

This is not good news in reaching the magic number. Not one pitcher is half way there.

For comparison sake here's the win totals for the the last four pitchers to reach 300 wins after the age of 32...

Clemens, 182
Maddux, 202
Glavine, 173
Johnson, 104

Only Randy Johnson fails to hit the half way point at the age of 32. (Johnson was a late bloomer and he had his best years after the age of 34. He also has over 71 wins since turing 40, which is quite remarkable. So in essence he's a freak--and I don't mean that in a bad way. It's just that his career path is unique).


So I guess it is possible for somebody like Sabathia or Santana to reach 300 wins but they are going to have to pitch well into their 40's.

I just think that it is going to be difficult. With the five man rotation pitchers make fewer starts then their predecessors. The debatable reliance on pitch counts also means that pitchers complete fewer games per season thus decreasing their chance for a decision (win or loss). (For example, The Mets bullpen blew seven victories for Santana last year).

The conditions of the modern game create an environment where it is difficult for pitchers to accumulate high win totals (per season and thus career). But the game does go in cycles so it's very conceivable for a pitcher to reach 300 wins for their career. But I don't see it happening anytime soon.