Best Picture candidates

Twice these week...I have laid awake a night trying to come up with what the Academy members will choose for the Best Picture category. I know...that's pretty dorky...but when I have trouble sleeping I seem to only get to sleep by talking to myself (not literally) to sleep. Of note...these aren't what I think the five best movies are of 2007...just what I think will score the nominations.

Here's my take.

I say No Country For Old Men and Atonement are virtual locks. No Country has already scored some prestigious Critics Circle's awards and Atonement lead the Golden Globe in nominations.

I think Juno has a 50% shot of landing a nod. It could be this year's Little Miss Sunshine. It was Roger Ebert's number one film and Richard Roeper and AO Scott raved about on "At the Movies."

Generally there's at least one movie that get nominated that is a box-office success. These moves fit (or might fit) this profile...American Gangster, Charlie Wilson's War or Sweeney Todd. War and Todd open this weekend so it is to early to tell how these moves register with the public. Maybe the real X-factor in this category is Ratatouille. I now there's a seprate category for animation now but it was one of the best films of the year. There's a 25% chance that one of these films gets nominated.

If one assumes that only one of those three gets nominated (and that certainly doesn't have to be the case) than there's one more spot open. It will be filled by another critical darling such as Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood, The Savages or I'm Not There. There's a 10-15% chance that one of these movies earns a nomination.

On a personal note...I'm holding out a 5% chance that 3:10 to Yuma gets a nomination. The more I think about...the more I just love that movie. But unfortunately I don't think it will earn a nomination although I think it was Best Picture material.

My prediction as of December 22 for the Best Picture Nominees is...

No Country For Old Men
Atonement
Juno
Charlie Wilson's War
Michael Clayton