Everybody realizes that for the first time in many years, Indiana's in play with respect to the presidential election. Andy and Elizabeth posted just the other day about some good news for Obama supporters in Indiana...one can check that out here.
I just wanted to put forward some (Indiana and Decatur County) numbers so we can compare them on election night.
In the 2000 election in Indiana Bush defeated Gore 1,245,836 votes to 901,980 (56.7% to 41.0%). In Decatur County... Bush garnered 6,115 votes to Gore's 2,899 (68% to 32%). The voter turnout in Indiana was 55% and in Decatur County the turnout was 58%.
In the 2004 election in Indiana Bush defeated Kerry 1,479,438 votes to 969,011 (59.9% to 39.3%). In Decatur County...Bush garnered 7,499 votes to Kerry's 2,621 (74% to 26%). The voter turnout in Indiana was 58% and in Decatur County the turnout was 66%.
Here's some thoughts...
Within Decatur County there has been a positive response to Obama...much more positing than I would have ever guessed but I'm realistic in my thinking that he's not going to win Decatur County. A turnaround like that is pretty hard to fathom. But a realistic goal is to narrow that margin...(maybe a 60-40 margin). And if that margin narrows in every county and Obama wins big in Marion, Lake & Monroe county than he does have a shot at winning Indiana (which hasn't voted for a Democrat since LBJ in 1964).
Secondly, as this article makes mention, the voter turnout in Indiana has been abysmal. (Although Decatur County has been higher than the state average). A large reason for this is the safe assumption that Indiana always goes Red...so unfortunately a number of people just don't bother voting. Consequently the candidates ignore Indiana because of that.
It's different this year and I believe that because of that Indiana is going to have a high--maybe even record breaking--turnout. The fact that the state is in play and that the candidates are showing up to campaign is leading to a lot of excitement. I think there's no question that a high turnout will help Obama as a lot of new voters will vote for him...plus his operation has made it a point to get those voters that haven't been voting...well...to vote.
I'm very curious to see how it plays out in Decatur County and Indiana. I maintain that on election night...if Indiana isn't called by 6:30 (like it normally is) than that's a good sign that Obama is going to have a good night.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
The other reason candidates have overlooked indiana in the past is because of the electoral college. With fewer than 20 votes, it would make sense to skip them...until now. Now the country is so split evenly that each state is important.
Hey, I'd like to add a link to your blog on my website on the "links" page.
www.greensburgneighbors.com
If you don't like the idea, that's okay too. Keep up the blogging.
That's cool.
Post a Comment