Oscar 2009 Predictions

The 81st Academy Awards airs this Sunday on ABC at 8:00. Here are our predictions in the six major categories.





Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (Doubt); Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona); Viola Davis (Doubt); Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button); Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)




Ryan: With Kate Winslet being relegated to the leading actress category, the best supporting actress category is completely wide open. Ultimately it's going to come down to Cruz and Davis and while both are equally deserving I believe Cruz will win. It's just been awhile since the Academy recognized a performance in a Woody Allen picture.




Andy: The class of this category is clearly Cruz and Davis. I would have no problem whatsoever seeing Cruz win for her intense performance in Vick Cristina Barcelona, but I think I would give the slight edge to Viola Davis. Much has been made of the fact that she is on screen for approximately eleven minutes, but during those eleven minutes she absolutely owned the screen that she was sharing with Oscar darling Meryl Streep.




Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin (Milk); Robert Downy Jr. (Tropic Thunder); Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt); Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight); Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)




Ryan: With apologies to the other nominees, Ledger will and should win this category. Make no mistake about it. This isn't based on sentimentality. Ledger gave the performance of the year and arguably the performance of the decade. It's rare when a performance becomes instantly iconic. Ledger did it.




Andy: Agreed. Thanks for playing, everyone else in this category. Even without his untimely death, Ledger’s Joker was destined to be a pop culture landmark, and the creepiest incarnation yet of the Joker. Ledger’s supreme acting chops took a good movie and turned it into a great one.




Best Actress: Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married); Angelina Jolie (Changeling); Melissa Leo (Frozen River); Meryl Streep (Doubt); Kate Winslet (The Reader)




Andy: Kate Winslet is clearly one of (if not the) best actors of her generation, and the fact she does not have an Oscar is quite surprising. I would expect that to end this weekend, as her very deserving performance in the otherwise boring film The Reader seems poised to bring her a trophy. It should be pointed out that this is not Winslet’s best work, but worthy work just the same.




Ryan: It's shaping up to be Winslet's year and she will more than likely win. I don't have a problem with Winslet winning the Oscar because she is such a talented performer and she deserves the recognition of being an Oscar winning actress. But if I had the vote I would vote for Hathaway. She delivered the extraordinary performance in that she developed a character that one likes just as much as one despises.




Best Actor: Richard Jenkins (The Visitor); Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon); Sean Penn (Milk); Brad Pitt (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button); Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)




Ryan: This is a two horse race between Penn and Rourke as they have virtually split the notable Oscar pre-cursors. While both delivered strong Oscar worthy performances, my vote would go to Rourke's tragic performance in The Wrestler. But I'm convinced that Penn is ultimately going to win for his heartfelt portrayal of slain gay-rights activist Harvey Milk.




Andy: I’m afraid Ryan is right on this one, and it comes down to who should win and who will win. All of my hopes are for Rourke, who delivered a performance that we will not likely see the caliber of again for a decade. His unique combination of raw emotion (up and down the spectrum), subtlety, and physical power is incredible to watch. Penn’s performance is very solid, but it seems to me that it is not quite on the rare level Rourke achieves.




Achievement in Directing: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire); Stephen Daldry (The Reader); David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button); Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon); Gus Van Sant (Milk)




Andy: It seems likely that this one belongs to Danny Boyle, as his direction in Slumdog Millionaire is almost flawless. He seems to me to be well above the other nominees this year. That said, I feel that the snubbed Darren Aronofsky can claim the best direction of the year for the aforementioned The Wrestler. The fact that a beautiful and tragic story can be told so flawlessly on the screen and lose a nomination to a movie as messy Benjamin Button is beyond me.




Ryan: Slumdog Millionaire has been on a role so I look for Boyle to win Best Director. He crafted a vibrant and exciting story that was both familiar and fresh. His only competition will be from Van Sant. The biopic picture needed a reboot and Van Sant brought a auteuristic flair that made Milk significant both from a historic and contemporary standpoint.




Best Picture: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Frost/Nixon; Milk; The Reader; Slumdog Millionaire




Ryan: Unfortunately this is the weakest crop of Best Picture nominees in years. Years from now there will be plenty of head-scratching with a majority of these selections. In my book, only Milk and Slumdog Millionaire belong in this category. In the end one of those two movies will win. Milk might be more relevant but Slumdog Millionaire will win. Its transcendent love-story has captured the global collective consciousness.




Andy: I’ll start by saying that Slumdog Millionaire better win best picture. If it doesn’t, something is definitely not right with the Academy, as it is clearly the best of the bunch. I also agree with Ryan that this is an almost inappropriately weak field this year, with just Slumdog and Milk (and possibly Frost / Nixon) being truly worthy. Movies that easily could have, and probably should have been included that weren’t include The Dark Knight, Wall-E, The Wrestler, Doubt, and there are probably a few others.




That’s all for this week; next week we will return with a look at a new release.