2008 Presidential Election

I've went ahead and forecasted the November 2008 Presidential Election. Not sure why I felt the need to do this but oh well.

I'm assuming Obama is the democratic nominee. Never smart to make assumptions in politics but at this point he should be the nominee (winning delegates is what it's about). The way I look at it..if Obama does not indeed become the nominee than something screwy happened and I don't even want to think about something like that happening.

I'm theorizing that it's going to be another close election (as of May 24, 2008). This is frustrating but just the reality. I don't think the electorate is as divided as in the past...especially four years ago but the prolonged democratic primary...I think...has hurt Obama in as much as it's going to be quite a challenge to bridge the schism in the democratic party.

With that said...I believe McCain has these states in hand (based on the past several presidential elections)...Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, Idaho, Utah, Arizona, Alaska, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina and West Virginia.

I think Obama has these states...California, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine and Hawaii.

Current electorate count...McCain 174...Obama 187 (270 is needed to win)

These following states will be battleground states. I've put the 2004 winner in parenthesis. Nevada (Bush), Colorado (Bush), New Mexico (Bush), Iowa (Bush), Minnesota (Kerry), Wisconsin (Kerry), Michigan (Kerry), Ohio (Bush), Pennsylvania (Kerry), Virginia (Bush), Florida (Bush), Georgia (Bush), Missouri (Bush), New Hampshire (Kerry).

In states that Bush carried, I believe that McCain will end up winning Nevada, Colorado and Ohio.

In states that Kerry won, I believe that Obama will win Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.

I do believe that Obama can change red states into blue states. I think he will win New Mexico (the Bill Richardson effect), Iowa and Virginia.

Unfortunately McCain will end up carrying Pennsylvania and New Hampshire (they really like him there).

If that all happens than the current count is McCain 233 and Obama 249.

In my estimation it's going to come down to Florida, Georgia and Missouri. Florida has 27 electorates, Georgia has 15 and Missouri has 11.

Basically Obama will win the nomination if he wins all three of those states...but probably more realistic he would either have to carry just Florida or both Georgia and Missouri.

Regrettably, Bush carried all three of those states in 2004 so Obama will have his work cut out for him...but he's more than capable of getting it done.

In the end I see him winning Missouri and Georgia (but losing Florida) for a final tally of Obama--275 to McCain's 260.


Yes We Can!....but it's going to be close.