Hall of Fame talk

Last Saturday I posted about the newest MLB Hall of Famers (Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice) and talked about next year's class featuring Barry Larkin, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez and Roberto Alomar. I stated then and still believe that three out of these four are hall of famers (contrary to the assumption that there won't be any first ballot hall of famers in this 2010 class).

Barry Larkin

He's in and it shouldn't even be a debate. As everyone knows I dislike the Reds, always have--always will. But even I can recognize that Larkin is a hall of famer. Why I feel so strongly about this is that I feel that as a Midwesterner that Larkin is getting disrespected simply because he played in the Midwest--in Cincinnati. If he would have played in New York, Boston or LA there wouldn't be as much uncertainty with his resume. And speaking of that...his resume as a shortstop is pretty solid.

--12 time All-Star
--1995 MVP winner
--career stats .295 (batting avg.)/ .371 (OBP)/ .444 (SLG)
--7 good years (OPS+ over 125--25% better than the average player) 1 great year (OPS+ over 150--50% better than the average player)

Let's compare that to his NL peers. According to Jayson Stark's, The Stark Truth, during Larkin's career he routinely outperformed his contemporaries. For example his career OPS (on base plus slugging) was .815. The average OPS of a shortstop in Larkin's day was .678...that's a 20% gap.


Just for the sake of argument let's compare Larkin to Ripken (both were shortstops during roughly the same period).
Ripken's career hitting numbers break this way: .276 (avg)/ .340(OBP)/ .447(SLG) (pretty similar to Larkin's)

And when one considers that Larkin was a better fielder than Ripken then it's not a stretch to put Larkin in Ripken's class...and if that's the case...then he's a no-brainer hall of famer.

Roberto Alomar

He might not get a lot of love because of some behavioral issues (spitting on umpires will cause that) but there's no question that he was one of the best (and the best in the AL) second basemen of his era. There's just no question. He was a 12 time All-Star and his career batting splits are .300 (avg)/ .371 (OBP)/ .443 (SLG).--which are remarkable career splits for a second baseman.

What also could hurt him is that he didn't reach any big milestone (like 3,000 hits) or win an MVP award. But he does have two World Series rings and also ten Gold Gloves.

Another way of looking at it is this...does Alomar's induction weaken the hall of fame or weaken the crop of second basemen in the hall of fame? The answer is a resounding no. For example...Alomar's career OPS (slugging % + on-base %) of .814 ranks him dead square in the middle of the 18 second basemen in the hall of fame.

Edgar Martinez

Before I looked at Edgar's career I thought there was no way that he was a hall of famer. That just shows that perception is not always the best gauge in determining a hall of famer. Bottom line...I didn't realize how great of a ball player (but more specifically hitter) Edgar was in his career. From 1995 to 2001 (his peak years) Edgar's average stats over those seven seasons were--.329 (avg)/ 28 (home runs)/ 110 (RBI's)/ .445 (OBP)/ .574 (SLG). That's solid...hall of fame solid. Furthermore...using the OPS+ as a gauge Edgar had three good seasons (OPS+ between 125-149) and eight great seasons (of an OPS+ over 150). That is incredible. In fact Edgar's career OBS+ is 147-- which is tied with hall of famers--Willie McCovey, Mike Schmidt and Willie Stargell and future hall of famers--Vladimir Guerrero and Alex Rodriguez. Those are legendary names...not just borderline hall of famers and future first ballot hall of famers.

Granted he was DH and that isn't going to help. Actually that is going to hurt him a lot. Additionally his career totals are pedestrian--2,200+ hits...309 home runs...1,261 RBI's. Those don't rank very high on the career lists. Although he was a late bloomer--he didn't play a full season until he was 27.

But did you know that before Edgar won his two batting titles that the last right hander to accomplish that feet in the AL (winning two batting titles) was guess who...Joe DiMaggio.

In essence Edgar has a lot working against him. He was a DH. His career didn't get started until he was 27 and his career numbers don't grab you. And he's Edgar Martinez...and let's be honest...if you aren't in Seattle...you just don't get worked up about Edgar. But I'm convinced that he should be a hall of famer. And I'll go on to say that (and this is assuming that he was clean) that he was the best "natural" all around hitter in the 1990's.

Fred McGriff

This man fell seven home runs short of 500 and it would have been more interesting if he would have gotten to 500 (because that--used to be--the magic number for inclusion). But even if he did...I'm just not convinced that he is a hall of famer. He was a good ball player for a number of years...even helped Maddux and the Braves to the 1995 World Series...but he just doesn't seem to cut it. He doesn't pass the eye test of what one would see as a hall of famer.

I don't know maybe his numbers look more real--again assuming that he was clean but he never finished in the top five in MVP voting. It seemed that he was never considered to be the best (or one of the best) first basemen in baseball when he was playing (There was Frank Thomas, Jeff Bagwell, Todd Helton, Mattingly, McGwire, Thome, Palmerio, Delgado, Giambi). Although he did put up some big numbers prior to the inflated era of the mid '90's and beyond. His best years were in the late '80's and early '90's. In fact when I apply the OPS+ test to his career he remarkably had 6 good years and 5 great years. That's pretty darn solid. But it just doesn't ever seem like he was an elite player. Maybe he's a victim of his position and era. There were a lot of good to great first basemen (although some were roided up) during his playing days and it seems that he didn't rise to the top.

I would say at this point that my vote now would be no...but I might need to do some more research.

So there you have it. I would vote without hesitating for Barry Larkin, Roberto Alomar and Edgar Martinez.

Sorry Crime Dog.