The Oscar race hits its apex with the broadcast of The 80th Academy Awards this Sunday night on ABC at 8:00 PM. Heres our take with regard to the six major categories.
Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett (Im Not There); Ruby Dee (American Gangster); Saoirse Ronan (Atonement); Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone); Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
Ryan: Besides young Ronan I could see the Oscar going to any of the other four nominees. I could see the Academy voters rewarding Dee (basically for a lifetime of cinematic work) but her actual screen time in American Gangster amounted to less than 5 minutes. Ultimately the first award of the night is going to be won by Amy Ryan for her authentic portrayal of a less-than-classy Boston single mom.
Andy: It looks like a two person race to me, as well, between Ruby Dee and Amy Ryan. Having not seen I'm Not There yet, I'll decline to comment on Blanchett's performance, but Swinton and Ronan both seem unlikely. I'd probably say that Amy Ryan did the best job among the group, with a performance that sticks with you long after you see it.
Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James); Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men); Philip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilsons War); Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild); Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
Andy: I'm always in the bag for Philip Seymour Hoffman and in a normal year I'd call him the front-runner. The bottom line, however is that Javier Bardem's tranquil demeanor as serial killer (and that accent, and that haircut!) will be too much to overcome, even for an Oscar favorite like Hoffman. Anyone but him winning would be a real surprise.
Ryan: I don't see this category offering any surprises. Bardem has cleaned house winning this award every time he's been nominated in every major Critic's circle or Oscar precursor. Honestly it's hard to even make a case for Bardem not to win. He was just that good in No Country for Old Men.
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age); Julie Christie (Away from Her); Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose); Laura Linney (The Savages); Ellen Page (Juno)
Ryan: Admittedly Ive completely dropped the ball in this category. The only performance that Ive seen is that of Pages in Juno. Christie and Cotillard are the alleged frontrunners but Im seeing this as the biggest surprise of the night with the young Ellen Page taking home the gold.
Andy: These performances were not very much in the public conscience this year, as I only saw Juno and the Savages. As a long time Laura Linney I'd love to see her get an Oscar, but her performance really wasn't any better than Ellen Page's. It's hard to predict Christie winning when I haven't seen Away from Her, but this feels like the sort of performance that Oscar voters love. If she hadn't won a statue already (Darling, 1966), she'd be lock. As it is, she's still got a really good shot.
Best Actor: George Clooney (Michael Clayton); Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood); Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd); Tommy Lee Jones (In theValley of Elah); Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
Ryan: I wouldn't at all have a problem with Clooney winning. He gave the best performance of his career in Micheal Clayton. Unfortunately for Clooney hes up against the unstoppable force known as Daniel Day-Lewis. Day-Lewis has swept every major Oscar precursor and theres a reason for that. He simply gave one of the best performances that we've seen this decade. Hence the Oscar will be much deserved.
Andy: There really doesn't seem to be much competition for Day-Lewis this year. Clooney's performance did eclipse his Oscar winning role in Syriana, but he just doesn't have the fire-power to stand up to Daniel Day-Lewis's commanding of a three hour movie. The only other serious competitor may be Johnny Depp, but I wouldn't put his Sweeny Todd in his own top five of performances, so his winning would be a farce.
Best Achievement in Directing: Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood); Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men); Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton); Jason Reitman (Juno); Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Ryan: This is shaping up to be a race between the Coen brothers and P.T. Anderson. I wouldn't have an issue either way with the Coen brothers winning or Anderson winning. Both No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood are truly memorable films. I'm going with the Coen brothers (and I realize this is somewhat of a cop out) simply because they won the Director's Guild Award for achievement in directing. Ninety percent of the time the winner of the DGA wins the Oscar.
Andy: I feel like the brothers Coen are long overdue for an Oscar for directing and this will be their year. Anderson's direction is every bit as good, and it really seems like a toss up. In that case, the advantage goes to the old guys who have never won one. It seems pretty likely that Anderson will get his turn in years to come.
Best Picture: Atonement; Juno; Michael Clayton; No Country for Old Men; There Will Be Blood
Andy: Personally I feel like there are two imposters on this list, and those are Michael Clayton and Atonement. Atonement is completely out of the conversations and will be remembered as an also-ran. Clayton could make a good case, but it just didn't seem like a great movie. Juno is the easiest movie to like of the bunch, and it may win because of it, but the most well made two movies seem clearly to be No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood. This could be a year for a director/ picture split with Blood taking best picture, but I think It's going to go to No Country for Old Men.
Ryan: Although I find Atonement to be hands down the weakest of the Best Picture nominees one could make the case for each of the nominated films to win. If I had a vote it would go for Micheal Clayton. Out of these nominees it was the most complete in terms of being a solid film. But I realize that I'm in the minority and will not at all have a problem when No Country for Old Men wins the Oscar. Its hard not to root for the Coen Brothers and after all No Country for Old Men is a cinematic work of art.
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